Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) Stock Faces Volatility but Analysts See 178% Upside

Mildred Roberts

Updated on:

Fossil Group Inc (NASDAQ: FOSL) saw 0.68 million shares traded in its latest session — lighter than its average daily volume of 1.02 million. The Footwear & Accessories retailer, which operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, reached an intraday high of $2.06 and a low of $1.79.

Over the past 52 weeks, FOSL has traded between $0.86 and $4.40, reflecting its volatile performance. The stock currently holds a 1-year price target of $5.00 and a beta of 1.64, indicating above-average market volatility.

Price Performance and Earnings

Fossil Group’s stock performance has shown both challenges and resilience across time frames. The stock dropped -13.04% in the past week and -26.83% over the past month, signaling recent weakness. However, it surged 7.78% in the last three months and climbed 44.00% over six months.

Over the last year, FOSL gained 7.78%, while it has advanced 36.88% year-to-date, suggesting improving sentiment despite short-term pullbacks.

Float and Short Interest

As of now, Fossil Group Inc has 53.79 million shares outstanding and a float of 49.11 million shares available for trading. Short interest stood at 5.2 million shares as of October 15, 2025, indicating moderate bearish activity.

The company’s leadership includes Franco Fogliato serving as Chief Executive Officer & Director, and Melissa B. Lowenkron as Chief Brand Officer, both steering the brand through strategic transformation initiatives.

Recent Financial Overview

For the fiscal quarter ending July 5, 2025, Fossil Group reported revenue of $220.39 million, alongside an operating income of $15.78 million. The company’s EBITDA reached $18.72 million, while diluted EPS came in at – $0.04, reflecting ongoing efforts to restore profitability amid a competitive retail landscape.

Analysts’ Ratings and Price Targets

While limited analyst coverage exists, projections show strong upside potential. Analysts set both the high and low price targets at $5.00, resulting in an average 12-month target of $5.00.

This implies that FOSL stock could surge approximately 177.78% from current levels — signaling a bullish outlook should the company continue to strengthen its balance sheet and brand presence.

EPS: Estimates vs. Actual

For the full year, analysts estimate EPS to average – $0.20, with both high and low forecasts aligned at the same figure. The consensus for the next quarter’s EPS stands at $0.02, suggesting potential progress toward breakeven.

Overall, Fossil Group Inc (NASDAQ: FOSL) remains a speculative but potentially rewarding turnaround play. Despite short-term pressure, the company’s improving financial metrics and optimistic analyst outlook point toward meaningful upside if its restructuring and brand initiatives yield results.

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